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Posts Tagged ‘Yingluck Shinawatra’

7th October 2013

China’s Premier, Li Keqiang is set to make an official trip to Thailand between the 11th and 13th of  this month. The Premier will be present in the Kingdom of Thailand as a guest of the Royal Thai Government. This visit will be the first time the Premier of China has visited Thailand since taking up office. During his stay the Premier is slated to meet with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in an effort to seek methods of improving the Thailand-China Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership through mutually beneficial cooperative endeavors.

Apparently, the official representatives of the Peoples’ Republic of China and the Kingdom of Thailand are also poised to sign various agreements exclusively pertaining to the Sino-Thai relationship. These agreements will deal with matters such as investment between the two nations, development of infrastructure, technology, education, and energy to name just a few areas which will be covered. As of the time of this writing, Thailand is the coordinator for relations between the Peoples’ Republic of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and in that capacity it appears likely that the Thai PM and the Chinese Premier will discuss matters relating to the ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership.

Meanwhile, in related news Transport Minister Chadchart Sittipunt has recently made comments regarding the linkage of the Kingdom of Thailand, Laos, and China via high speed rail systems as well as other transportation initiatives under the aegis of the Thailand 2020 program. It would appear that plans are being implemented to construct a high speed railroad linking Bangkok to Nong Khai, the Northeastern Thai province bordering Viantiane, Laos. Construction of such a railway is expected to begin in the latter half of 2014. Upon completion of the project travelers will be able to make the trip between Bangkok and Nong Khai in approximately 3 hours. The system will then link up with Yunnan, China via Laos. Furthermore, enhanced roadworks are expected to be constructed, including new four-lane roadways, in order to streamline transportation both within Thailand as well as in Laos and China.

Clearly, these efforts are likely to fundamentally change the landscape of Northern Thailand both physically and economically. The linking of Northern Thailand, Laos, and Southern China will have a significant impact upon the economies of all three jurisdictions while simultaneously changing the way in which business is currently being conducted in this region. These developments are occurring as the ASEAN countries prepare for the coming integration of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and it stands to reason that further cooperation between Thailand and China bilaterally and China and ASEAN multilaterally will see economic benefits not only for Thailand, but for the other ASEAN jurisdictions as well.

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30th August 2013

In a recent article from The Telegraph author Ambrose Evans-Pritchard analyzed how Federal Reserve policies impact emerging markets. It is a very interesting article for anyone (especially expatriates living abroad) interested in understanding how Fed policy reverberates in markets outside of the United States. Of particular interest to expats living overseas was the analysis of the disproportionate impact Fed policy has on foreign nationals residing in other countries. Although the aforementioned article would seem primarily targeted  at a British audience, as an American expatriate living in the Kingdom of Thailand, I found this information compelling. Evans-Pritchard cited an assertion from Mirza Baig of BNP Paribas noting that foreign nationals bear significant currency risks in some of the nations in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, it appears that foreigners bear currency risks of 81%, while those expatriates living in Malaysia and India bear 90% and 74% risk, respectively. I have  dealt with the vicissitudes of currency fluctuation many times during my tenure in Thailand as the exchange rate between the Thai Baht and the US Dollar was around 39-1 when I first arrived in the Kingdom. Since then, I have seen the exchange rate fall (or rise depending upon your perspective) to around 27-1 and re-stabilize around 30-1. As of the time of this writing, the Baht-Dollar exchange rate stands at approximately 31-1. However, many are speculating that the Baht will lose value against the dollar in the coming months. This would likely be due to the perception that the Fed may begin to implement a kind of belt tightening after years of promoting liquidity.

Unlike times past, the actions of the Fed have increasingly serious implications in emerging markets. As the article noted, in the past when the Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tightened up his belt, there were substantial ramifications in South America and elsewhere. The negative aspects of those policies on South American economies was containable. However, this was at a time when China was virtually isolated, and the Soviet Union did not really factor into the any analysis of the economic interactions between countries in the “Free World”. Meanwhile in the 1990′s Federal Reserve policies could negatively impact global economics more than before that period, such negative implications were still containable since there was a “power ratio” of around 1:2 between the United States economy and the emerging markets. This is no longer the case as the relationship has basically equalized. Should Fed policies have a substantial negative impact on the emerging markets, then the problem may not be contained within those markets and the economic problems could easily (and quickly, if there is anything to be learned from the financial crashes of the past decade) spill over into Western Europe and America.

In American politics, one cannot read articles and information regarding the United States’ stance on Southeast Asia without seeing the words “pivot”. The Obama administration has consistently noted that the U.S. wishes to see American foreign policy “pivot” to a more solid relationship with the nations in the Asia-Pacific region and those comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact the P-word has been cited in connection to the visit to Southeast Asia by the American Secretary of Defense. However, in light of recent events in the economic sphere it would appear that ASEAN countries and Thailand specifically may be “pivoting” themselves. For example, at the recent meeting between the Foreign Ministers of ASEAN and the Foreign Minister of China it was noted that Sino-ASEAN trade increased five times compared to ten years ago. As of 2012, trade between China and ASEAN stood at approximately $400 billion. Clearly, China is becoming an increasingly important trading partner and in light of the fact that ASEAN and Thailand may not wish to be at the mercy of the Fed’s whims, further solidifying this relationship may prove to be an effective method for ASEAN nations to mitigate negative side effects caused by economic policies of both China and the United States.

In a recent interview, the Prime Minister of Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra, articulated a desire to see further investment in Thailand from China and supported such an investment due to Thailand’s position as the “strategic center” of ASEAN. “Thailand will be spending about 66 billion U.S. dollars in infrastructure. Especially, we will need the technology that China has, like high speed train,” Mrs. Yingluck stated. “And we know that the high-speed railway connecting Thailand and China will run from Thailand through Laos to China. So it will be an important part of Chinese investment in Thailand”. As the deadline for ASEAN integration comes ever closer it seems logical to assume that Thailand, the ASEAN jurisdictions, and China will all see a closer economic relationship begin to blossom. How this relationship will impact both diplomatic and trade relations with the United States remains to be seen, but American economic policy makers should be aware that the era of America being able to set economic and monetary policy with little thought to the implications in emerging Asian markets has passed.

 

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3rd July 2011

It recently came to this blogger’s attention that the Kingdom of Thailand may see a female Prime Minister for the first time in that country’s history. In order to provide further insight into these developments it may be best to quote directly from the official website of Reuters, Reuters.com:

Yingluck Shinawatra, a 44-year-old businesswoman who wasn’t even in politics two months ago, is poised to get the top job after the stunning election victory of Puea Thai (For Thais), whose de facto leader is her brother, fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Yingluck, known as Pou (Crab), the nickname her parents gave her, has never run for office or held a government post, so she has a lot to prove to show she can run the country. But some Thais, especially females, want to give her the benefit of the doubt and see this as a big step for women in a country where they have struggled for equal representation in government…

The administration of this web log encourages readers to click upon the relevant hyperlinks noted above to read further about the details of this story.

The Kingdom of Thailand is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and political events occurring in this jurisdiction can have ramifications for the business community in Thailand and Greater Asia. Concurrently, the prospect of a first time election of a female leader in any nation is significant news by any estimate. It should be interesting to see how these events unfold.

In American news, the government of the sovereign State of Minnesota recently shut down and has remained so for a few days. To provide further insight into these events it may be best to quote directly from the official website of CNN, CNN.com:

The government shutdown in Minnesota could drag on for days as a spokeswoman for Gov. Mark Dayton said talks probably won’t happen until after the July 4 holiday. ”I do not expect formal meetings to resume before Tuesday,” Katharine Tinucci said in an e-mail Saturday night. The Minnesota government was forced to shut down Friday for the second time in six years after lawmakers failed to reach a budget agreement before a midnight Thursday deadline…

The administration of this web log encourages readers to click upon the hyperlinks above to learn more.

In a previous posting on this web log the possibility of an American federal government shutdown was discussed, but did not actually occur as American legislators came to a consensus regarding some of the issues associated with the United States budget and this consensus resulted in the American government remaining open. As the United States has a separate sovereignty system the various American States maintain separate governments from that of the federal government. The shutdown of any government can have implications for a State’s economy and therefore it is likely hoped by many around the USA (and the world) that Minnesota’s government can resolve their issues and get back to the business of governing that State.

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